Afghanistan National Electrical System Long-Range Planning Study

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Client: US Government Agency
Location: Afghanistan

POWER conducted an analysis of the entire Afghanistan national electric 110 kV and 220 kV power system and its load centers. We analyzed and modeled in the system in PSS®E to forecast future loads, new generation sources, and power import scenarios for the years 2010-2030. Our team developed load-forecasting algorithms to forecast unconstrained and constrained load growth, by province, using provincial accessibility data, population data, persons per household, estimated average household usage, and estimated uptake rate. The forecasted loads were allocated to established population centers and modeled in PSS®E power flow models.

The study analyzed existing demand constraints, existing generation underutilization, and delivery impediments to a forecasted 350 percent load growth and 2,500 MW of generation over the next 20 years. In addition, recommendations for offsetting expensive diesel generation with utility-scale wind and solar facilities were studied. The model was based on limited existing Afghan system database information and one-line drawings, supplemented with reasonable data estimates based on POWER’s significant foreign line design and substation design experience.

The projected future power flow and stability models incorporated new transmission lines needed to transmit 500-MW-sized blocks of generation (both indigenous and import) to load centers over 1,000 km distant. Analyses of these large transfer needs demonstrated the need for reactive power compensation to optimize power flow, faster breaker fault-clearing times, and transfer-trip protection and control schemes to optimize system stability following disturbances.